As the apple producing area enters the main harvest season, the data released by China Fruit Circulation Association shows that the total output of apples in China this year is about 45 million tons, a slight increase from the output of 44 million tons in 2020. In terms of production areas, Shandong is expected to reduce production by 15%, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Gansu increase production slightly, and Sichuan and Yunnan have good benefits, rapid development and large growth. Although Shandong, the main producing area, has encountered natural disasters, it can still maintain sufficient supply with the increase of domestic apple producing areas. However, from the perspective of apple quality, the excellent fruit rate in each producing area in the North has decreased compared with previous years, and the secondary fruit rate has increased significantly.
In terms of purchase price, as the total output does not decrease, the overall purchase price of the whole country this year is lower than that of last year. The differentiation market of high-quality fruits and general fruits continues. The price of high-quality fruits is relatively strong, with a limited decline, and the price of low-quality fruits has a large decline. Specifically, the transaction of high-quality and good goods in the western production area has basically ended, the number of merchants has decreased, and fruit farmers have begun to put into storage by themselves. Fruit farmers in the eastern region are reluctant to sell, and it is difficult to purchase high-quality goods. Customers pick the source of goods according to their needs, and the actual transaction price is based on quality, while the price of general source of goods is relatively weak.
Among them, the fruit surface rust in Shandong production area is more serious, and the commodity rate decreases by 20% – 30% compared with the average year. The price of good goods is strong. The first and second grade price of red chips above 80# is 2.50-2.80 yuan / kg, and the first and second grade price of stripes above 80# is 3.00-3.30 yuan / kg. The price of Shaanxi 80# above striped primary and secondary fruits can be sold at 3.5 yuan / kg, 70# at 2.80-3.20 yuan / kg, and the price of unified goods is 2.00-2.50 yuan / kg.
From the growth state of apple this year, there was no late spring cold in April this year, and Apple grew more smoothly than in previous years. In the middle and late September, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places suddenly encountered frost and hail. Natural disasters have caused certain damage to apple growth, leading to the market generally believing that the excellent fruit rate has decreased, and the overall supply of fruit is tight in a short period of time. At the same time, driven by the rising prices of vegetables at this stage, apple prices have risen rapidly recently. Since the end of last month, Apple’s price has risen sharply and continuously. In October, the price rose by nearly 50% month on month, but this year’s purchase price is still 10% lower than that of the same period last year.
Overall, apple is still in a situation of oversupply this year. In 2021, compared with last year, apple production in China is in the recovery stage, while consumer demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and the oversupply situation is still. At present, the price of basic living materials is rising, and apple, as a non necessity, has low demand intensity for consumers. The continuous influx of various new fruit varieties at home and abroad has a great impact on apple. In particular, the domestic citrus output increases year by year, and the substitution for apple is enhanced. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of Citrus has far exceeded that of Apple since 2018, and the supply period of medium and late mature citrus can be extended to the middle of June of the next year. The increase in demand for low-cost citrus varieties has indirectly affected apple consumption.
For the future apple price, industry insiders said: at this stage, it is mainly hyping the excellent fruit rate. At present, the hype is too much. In addition to the influence of holiday factors, such as Christmas Eve, the retail demand for Apple will increase significantly. There has not been a fundamental change in the overall supply and demand link, and the apple price will eventually return to rationality.
Post time: Nov-08-2021