Since October, domestic vegetable prices have risen rapidly, but garlic prices have remained stable. After the cold wave in early November, as the rain and snow dissipated, the industry paid more attention to the planting area of garlic in the new season. As garlic farmers actively replant, the area of many peripheral production areas has increased, resulting in negative sentiment in the market. Depositors’ willingness to ship increased, while buyers’ attitude was only for sale, which led to the weakening of cold storage garlic market and the loosening of prices.
The price of old garlic in Jinxiang production area of Shandong has decreased, and the average price has decreased from 2.1-2.3 yuan / kg last week to 1.88-2.18 yuan / kg. The shipment speed of old garlic is obviously accelerated, but the loading volume is still emerging in a steady stream. The general mixed grade price of cold storage is 2.57-2.64 yuan / kg, and the medium mixed grade price is 2.71-2.82 yuan / kg.
The garlic market in the warehouse of Pizhou production area remained stable, a small amount of new sales sources were added at the supply side, and the market volume was slightly more. However, the seller’s shipment mood is stable and generally adheres to the asking price. The merchants in the distribution market have a fair enthusiasm for taking the goods of low asking price garlic, and the transactions in the production area are basically carried out with them. The price of 6.5cm garlic in the warehouse is 4.40-4.50 yuan / kg, and each level is 0.3-0.4 yuan lower; The price of 6.5cm white garlic in the warehouse is about 5.00 yuan / kg, and the price of 6.5cm raw skin processed garlic is 3.90-4.00 yuan / kg.
The price difference of general mixed grade garlic in Qi county and Zhongmou production area of Henan Province is about 0.2 yuan / kg compared with that in Shandong production area, and the average price is about 2.4-2.52 yuan / kg. This is only the official offer. There is still room for negotiation when the transaction is actually concluded.
In terms of export, in October, the export volume of garlic increased by 23700 tons year-on-year, and the export volume reached 177800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. In addition, from January to October 2021, the export volume of garlic slices and garlic powder increased, reaching a new high in recent years. The prices of garlic slices and garlic powder began to rise from September, and the prices did not rise significantly in the previous months. In October, the export value of domestic dry garlic (garlic slices and garlic powder) was 380 million yuan, equivalent to 17588 yuan / ton. The export value increased by 22.14% year-on-year, equivalent to a 6.4% increase in the export price per ton. It should be noted that in late November, the demand for export processing began to rise, and the export price also increased. However, the overall export quantity was not significantly enlarged, and it was still in a stable state.
The price of garlic in the second half of this year is in the supply and demand pattern of high inventory, high price and low demand. Last year, the price of garlic was between 1.5-1.8 yuan / kg, and the inventory was about 4.5 million tons, driven by the demand at the low point. This year’s situation is that the garlic price is between 2.2-2.5 yuan / kg, which is about 0.7 yuan / kg higher than last year’s price. The inventory is 4.3 million tons, only about 200000 tons less than last year. However, from the perspective of supply, the garlic supply is too large. This year, garlic exports are seriously affected by the international epidemic. The export volume of Southeast Asia fell year-on-year from January to September, the domestic epidemic occurred point by point, catering and gathering activities decreased, and the demand for garlic rice decreased.
With the entry of mid November, garlic planting all over the country has basically ended. According to the survey results of insiders, the planting area of garlic has increased slightly. This year, Qi County, Zhongmou and Tongxu in Henan, Liaocheng, Tai’an, Daming in Hebei, Jinxiang in Shandong and Pizhou in Jiangsu were affected to varying degrees. Even in September, it broke out that farmers in Henan sold garlic seeds and gave up planting. This gives farmers in by-product areas hope for the garlic market next year, and they start planting one after another, and even increase planting efforts. In addition, with the general improvement of garlic planting mechanization, the planting density has increased. Before the arrival of La Nina, farmers generally took preventive measures to apply antifreeze and even cover the second film, which reduced the probability of output reduction next year. To sum up, garlic is still in a state of oversupply.
Post time: Nov-30-2021