In December, the price of garlic in domestic cold storage continued to fall. Although the daily decline is small, it has maintained a sustained unilateral weakening market. The price of 5.5cm red garlic in Jinxiang market has decreased from 3 yuan / kg to 2.55 yuan / kg, and the price of general mixed garlic has decreased from 2.6 yuan / kg to 2.1 yuan / kg, with a decrease range of 15% – 19%, which has also reached a new low in recent half a year.
Last year, there were too many stocks of old garlic and the serious price decline was the main reason for the weakening of the market. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the initial inventory in 2021 was 1.18 million tons, significantly higher than that in 2020. Looking back to November December 2020, there was not much old garlic left at that time. However, there are still about 200000 tons of old garlic this year, far more than in previous years. It is expected that the digestion of old garlic will still be a problem before the Spring Festival. This year, the pattern of oversupply in the garlic market is prominent. New garlic depositors can not resist the pressure, panic everywhere, and the price has also entered a downward range. Meanwhile, the price difference between new and old garlic reached a new high in recent years, and the selling time of new garlic was seriously squeezed.
At present, the lowest transaction price of old garlic is about 1.2 yuan / kg, the lowest transaction price of general mixed grade is about 2.1 yuan / kg, and the price difference is about 0.9 yuan / kg; The highest transaction price of old garlic is about 1.35 yuan / kg, the highest transaction price of general mixed grade is about 2.2 yuan / kg, and the price difference is about 0.85 yuan / kg; From the average price, the price difference between new and old garlic is about 0.87 yuan / kg. Under such a high price difference, the old garlic has seriously squeezed the sales time of new garlic. The remaining amount of old garlic is large, and it still takes time to digest. The selling time of new garlic is seriously squeezed.
In terms of demand, due to the high price at the beginning of this year and the small profit space of garlic slice factory, there are fewer garlic slices this year, which can not effectively drive the purchasing enthusiasm of garlic in the library. Due to repeated outbreaks, it is difficult for domestic market consumption to return to normal. The demand for garlic and rice is also affected by the large economic environment, the downstream consumption has weakened, the delivery speed is not fast, and the domestic sales situation is poor.
In terms of exports, the annual export volume decreased compared with the same period last year due to the rise of sea freight, the difficulty of obtaining containers, the shortage of shipping schedule and other factors. According to customs data, the total quantity of fresh or refrigerated garlic in China in October 2021 was about 177900 tons, an increase of about 15.40% year-on-year compared with 154100 tons in the same period last year. Although the export volume in October increased significantly compared with the same period, affected by the downturn of the market, some export companies and processing plants chose Self Inventory for export processing, which had a weak boost to the market in disguised form; Moreover, due to the expiration of Indonesia’s quota, the delivery volume in Southeast Asia has decreased, the order volume of packaging companies has decreased, and the domestic and foreign demand has decreased, which makes the garlic market not optimistic this year.
In addition, the expansion of garlic area in 2021 has gradually become the consensus of most people. The increase of garlic area in the new season will undoubtedly be bad for the stock garlic market and become a quantitative factor causing the decline of garlic price. And this year, cold winter becomes warm winter, and garlic seedlings grow well. According to the survey of professionals, garlic in Jinxiang and other places has seven leaves and one new or eight leaves and is growing well. There are fewer dead trees and pests, which is also bad for the price.
In the current environment, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of more supply and less demand in the garlic market. However, the market at this stage will be affected by the reluctance of depositors to sell, the support of sellers and the change of public opinion, which is easy to form a pattern of weak balance between supply and demand and low price fluctuation.
Post time: Jan-05-2022